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2024 Syndicate 4141 Annual Report and Accounts
NOTES TO THE ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
4.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING JUDGEMENTS AND ESTIMATION UNCERTAINTY
Judgements and estimates are continually evaluated and are based on historical experience and other factors,
including expectations of future events that are believed to be reasonable under the circumstances.
Significant estimates
Estimation of the ultimate net claims incurred from the issuance of insurance contracts involves assumptions
concerning the future, and the resulting accounting estimates will, by definition, seldom equal the related
actual results. The assumptions used in making estimates that have a significant risk of causing a material
adjustment to the carrying amounts of assets and liabilities within the next financial year are addressed below.
i.
The ultimate liability arising from claims made under insurance contracts
The estimate of the ultimate liability arising from claims made under insurance contracts is the
Syndicate’s most critical accounting estimate. The carrying amount of the claims outstanding, net of
reinsurance, is £130.6m (2023: £130.5m), see Note 20 Technical Provisions for net claims outstanding.
There are many sources of uncertainty that need to be considered in the estimate of the liability that the
Group will ultimately pay for such claims. The level of provision has been set on the basis of the
information that is currently available, including potential outstanding loss advice, experience of
development of similar claims, historical experience, case law and legislative and judicial actions.
Full analyses of reserves take place at least annually. During the full analyses, attritional claims and large
losses gross and net of reinsurance are projected to ultimate using the following four standard actuarial
methods: Paid Chain Ladder, Incurred Chain Ladder, Incurred Bornhuetter-Ferguson and Loss Ratio
method. The method selected depends on the accident or underwriting year, gross or net of reinsurance
perspective and the line of business. Generally, for more developed years, the Incurred Chain Ladder is
used and for less developed years, the Incurred Bornhuetter-Ferguson method is used. For the years
where the Incurred Bornhuetter-Ferguson or Loss Ratio method is used, the ultimate claim projected is
sensitive to the Initial Expected Ultimate Loss Ratio assumption (also referred to as the ‘prior loss ratio’
assumption).
The most significant assumptions made relate to the level of future claims, the level of future claims
settlements and the legal interpretation of insurance policies. Whilst the directors consider that the gross
provision for claims and the related reinsurance recoveries are fairly stated on the basis of the information
currently available to them, the ultimate liability will vary as a result of subsequent information and events
and may result in significant adjustments to the amount provided. Adjustments to the amounts of
provision are reflected in the accounts for the period in which the adjustments are made. The methods
used and the estimates made are reviewed regularly. Additional qualitative judgement is used to assess
the extent to which past trends may not apply in the future in order to arrive at a point estimate for the
ultimate cost of claims that represents the likely outcome. See Note 19 Claims Development for loss
development triangles.
ii.
Fair value of financial instruments
The fair value of financial instruments traded in active markets is based on quoted bid prices at the balance
sheet date. If quoted prices are not readily available, observable prices for recent arm’s length
transactions for an identical asset are used to determine its fair value. The carrying value of these
instruments is £208.6m (2023: £234.0m), see Note 13 Fair Value Estimation for pricing basis. The
Syndicate uses its judgement to select a variety of methods and make assumptions that are mainly based
on market conditions existing at the end of each reporting period.
iii.
Pipeline premium
The Syndicate makes an estimate of premiums written on a policy by policy basis. Pipeline premium is the
difference between estimated premium and booked premium. For the majority of lines written, premium
is adjusted to equal booked premium two years post expiry. Pipeline premium is recorded within gross
written premium and an assessment is made of the related unearned premium provision and an estimate
of claims incurred but not reported in respect of the earned element. The pipeline premium included
within gross written premium is £42.9m (2023: £36.3m). There are no significant judgements made in
applying the accounting policies.